Philadelphia Fed Survey to be released Thurs. June 16th at 10AM ET. There is a high negative correlation between this report and the bond market because the report is released early in the month. T-bond is in backwardation = bullish. Buy point is 127’41 on volume and disappointing survey. Overall, the market isn’t expecting a shutdown of business activity, only that manufacturing will slow down. We may reach the buy point long before Thurs if the major US stocks indices take another dive on Monday. How much of that expectation is already priced in? No one knows and we can’t assume that that’s it’s fully priced in.
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