$EUR/USD: Backtest Notes, 20 d 1h (8/27)

CONCLUSION: 

At ST market tops and bottoms, DMI diverges on average 24.45, signalling that the market can no longer sustain the slope of the trend. A total of 10 flashes, with a low of 14 and a high of 35 and one false signal of 16. But the low 14 was confirmed with other signals. Four times, the DMI was the lone signal. More risk can be taken when confirmed with RSI and candlesticks/reversal patterns.

Hammers and inverted hammers should have wick length at least 75% of the candle.

Prices hugging along the upper or lower band, 2-3 candle bodies closing outside the Bollinger Band, with 1 complete body closing outside the BB are enough to cause a reversal.

EMAs: the 100-day was hit the most on the hourly for a total of 19, followed by the 20-day BB heartline for a total of 14, and then the 50-day at 11. At no time was the EMA a signal of ST market tops or bottoms. Final configuration should be the 180-day for LT, hearline at 20, and the 100-day.

RSI divergence occurs once and was very reliable. RSI double bottom and top each occurs once and are very reliable. RSI overbought/oversold condition for an hour without prices making new highs or lows is enough for a ST reversal.

NOTE: Zooming out the chart makes identifying patterns easier.

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10 Responses to $EUR/USD: Backtest Notes, 20 d 1h (8/27)

  1. lima99us says:

    ‎$USD/CAD gaps down over the weekend but as soon as U.S. equities #futures open lower @ 6pm ET, the dollar strengthens to filled the gap.

  2. lima99us says:

    EUR/USD short at 1.44852. Bought Corn @ 768.83 even though DMI diverges 41.2147 and RSI overbought for 5 hrs

  3. lima99us says:

    Tues. $USD Consumer Confidence (AUG) High Importance. Forecast 52.0 Prev. 59.5. 10:00am ET. FOMC Minutes 2pm

  4. lima99us says:

    I got out of corn at BE because had no strength on lows @ mid-session and I wanted to go to sleep. But I couldn’t sleep. CNBC was talking corn and it popped higher. BOTTOM LINE: Closing direction is very important.

  5. lima99us says:

    $XPP China double-bottom, waiting for a breakout

  6. lima99us says:

    USD/JPY triggered stops above 77, ran up, the retraced to 77 before running again. At key levels, there are a lot of stops and will likely run. Don’t chase!

  7. lima99us says:

    Just saw an Evening Star on the EUR/GBP 5m-chart (non-correlated to US non-farm payroll release tomorrow). Short sale stops were forming as Doji was forming.

  8. lima99us says:

    The 5min candle countermove of EUR/USD is long impulsive. Caution!

  9. lima99us says:

    Waking up to see my portfolio jumped, it’s easy to think I’m hot that I added to positions without looking for the proper entry e.g. retracement

  10. lima99us says:

    NOTE: Don’t get in trouble relying on the Fibs alone. They must line up with at least one other key level of support or resistance (e.g. Kumo cloud).

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